trading-platform/docs/02-definicion-modulos/OQI-006-ml-signals/especificaciones/ET-ML-011-mrd-strategy.md

---
id: "ET-ML-011"
title: "MRD (Momentum Regime Detection) Strategy"
type: "Technical Specification"
status: "Approved"
priority: "Alta"
epic: "OQI-006"
project: "trading-platform"
version: "1.0.0"
created_date: "2026-01-25"
updated_date: "2026-01-25"
task_reference: "TASK-2026-01-25-ML-TRAINING-ENHANCEMENT"
---

# ET-ML-011: MRD (Momentum Regime Detection) Strategy

## Metadata

| Campo | Valor |
|-------|-------|
| **ID** | ET-ML-011 |
| **Epica** | OQI-006 - Senales ML |
| **Tipo** | Especificacion Tecnica |
| **Version** | 1.0.0 |
| **Estado** | Aprobado |
| **Ultima actualizacion** | 2026-01-25 |
| **Tarea Referencia** | TASK-2026-01-25-ML-TRAINING-ENHANCEMENT |

---

## Resumen

La estrategia MRD (Momentum Regime Detection) detecta regimenes de mercado (tendencia alcista, rango, tendencia bajista) usando un **Hidden Markov Model (HMM)** con 3 estados, complementado por **LSTM** para secuencias y **XGBoost** para predicciones.

### Caracteristicas Clave

- **HMM de 3 Estados**: Detecta regimenes Trend Up, Range, Trend Down
- **Features de Momentum**: RSI, MACD, ROC, ADX, EMA crossovers
- **Transiciones de Regimen**: Probabilidades de cambio de estado
- **Prediccion de Direccion**: Basada en regimen actual + momentum

---

## Arquitectura

### Diagrama de Alto Nivel

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                           MRD MODEL                                      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                          │
│  Input: OHLCV Data                                                       │
│         └── Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, ROC, ADX)                   │
│                          │                                               │
│            ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐                                │
│            ▼                           ▼                                │
│  ┌──────────────────────┐    ┌──────────────────────┐                  │
│  │   HMM REGIME         │    │   LSTM ENCODER       │                  │
│  │   DETECTOR           │    │                       │                  │
│  │                       │    │ ┌─────────────────┐  │                  │
│  │  States:             │    │ │ BiLSTM Layers   │  │                  │
│  │  0 = TREND_UP        │    │ │ (2 layers)      │  │                  │
│  │  1 = RANGE           │    │ └─────────────────┘  │                  │
│  │  2 = TREND_DOWN      │    │         │            │                  │
│  │                       │    │         ▼            │                  │
│  │  Outputs:            │    │ ┌─────────────────┐  │                  │
│  │  - current_regime    │    │ │ Attention Pool  │  │                  │
│  │  - regime_probs      │    │ └─────────────────┘  │                  │
│  │  - transition_probs  │    └──────────────────────┘                  │
│  └──────────────────────┘              │                                │
│            │                           │                                │
│            └───────────┬───────────────┘                                │
│                        ▼                                                │
│  ┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐  │
│  │                    XGBOOST PREDICTOR                               │  │
│  │                                                                     │  │
│  │  Features: [regime_encoded, regime_probs, lstm_features,          │  │
│  │             momentum_features, transition_probs]                   │  │
│  │                                                                     │  │
│  │  Outputs:                                                          │  │
│  │  - direction: bullish/bearish/neutral                              │  │
│  │  - regime_continuation_prob                                        │  │
│  │  - expected_regime_duration                                        │  │
│  └───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘  │
│                          │                                               │
│                          ▼                                               │
│  Output: MRDPrediction                                                   │
│          - current_regime: 'TREND_UP' | 'RANGE' | 'TREND_DOWN'          │
│          - direction: float                                              │
│          - regime_confidence: float                                      │
│          - next_regime_probs: Dict                                       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

### Componentes HMM

```python
HMMConfig:
    n_states: 3  # Trend Up, Range, Trend Down
    n_iter: 100  # EM iterations
    covariance_type: 'full'
    random_state: 42
```

| Estado | Caracteristicas | Probabilidad Tipica |
|--------|-----------------|---------------------|
| **TREND_UP** | RSI > 50, MACD > 0, ADX > 25 | ~30% |
| **RANGE** | RSI ~50, ADX < 20 | ~40% |
| **TREND_DOWN** | RSI < 50, MACD < 0, ADX > 25 | ~30% |

### Componentes LSTM

| Componente | Configuracion |
|------------|---------------|
| **Layers** | 2 BiLSTM layers |
| **hidden_size** | 128 |
| **dropout** | 0.2 |
| **sequence_length** | 50 |
| **output_dim** | 64 (latent features) |

---

## Feature Engineering

### Momentum Features

#### 1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

```python
RSI Features:
    rsi_14: RSI period 14
    rsi_7: RSI period 7
    rsi_28: RSI period 28
    rsi_divergence: price_trend - rsi_trend
    rsi_zone: oversold (-1) / neutral (0) / overbought (1)
```

| Feature | Formula | Interpretacion |
|---------|---------|----------------|
| `rsi_14` | RSI standard | Momentum actual |
| `rsi_divergence` | `np.sign(price_slope) - np.sign(rsi_slope)` | Divergencia bull/bear |
| `rsi_zone` | Discretizado (-1, 0, 1) | Zona de RSI |

#### 2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

```python
MACD Features:
    macd: EMA_12 - EMA_26
    macd_signal: EMA_9(macd)
    macd_hist: macd - macd_signal
    macd_crossover: binary (1 if macd > signal, else -1)
    macd_hist_slope: trend of histogram
```

| Feature | Descripcion |
|---------|-------------|
| `macd_hist` | Histograma MACD |
| `macd_crossover` | Cruce de linea de senal |
| `macd_hist_slope` | Direccion del histograma |

#### 3. ROC (Rate of Change)

```python
ROC Features:
    roc_5: (close / close.shift(5) - 1) * 100
    roc_10: (close / close.shift(10) - 1) * 100
    roc_20: (close / close.shift(20) - 1) * 100
    roc_acceleration: roc_5 - roc_5.shift(5)
```

#### 4. ADX (Average Directional Index)

```python
ADX Features:
    adx: ADX(14)
    plus_di: +DI(14)
    minus_di: -DI(14)
    di_crossover: +DI > -DI ? 1 : -1
    trend_strength: ADX > 25 ? 'strong' : 'weak'
```

| Feature | Interpretacion |
|---------|----------------|
| `adx > 25` | Mercado en tendencia |
| `adx < 20` | Mercado en rango |
| `+DI > -DI` | Tendencia alcista dominante |

#### 5. EMA Crossovers

```python
EMA_Crossover Features:
    ema_8_21_cross: EMA(8) vs EMA(21)
    ema_21_55_cross: EMA(21) vs EMA(55)
    ema_stack: 1 if EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA55 else -1 if EMA8 < EMA21 < EMA55 else 0
    price_vs_ema21: (close - EMA21) / close
```

---

## Estados del Regimen

### Definicion de Estados HMM

```python
class RegimeState(Enum):
    TREND_UP = 0    # Mercado en tendencia alcista
    RANGE = 1       # Mercado lateral/consolidacion
    TREND_DOWN = 2  # Mercado en tendencia bajista
```

### Caracteristicas por Estado

| Estado | RSI | MACD | ADX | EMA Stack | Volatilidad |
|--------|-----|------|-----|-----------|-------------|
| TREND_UP | > 55 | > 0, rising | > 25 | 8 > 21 > 55 | Media |
| RANGE | 40-60 | Near 0 | < 20 | Mixto | Baja |
| TREND_DOWN | < 45 | < 0, falling | > 25 | 8 < 21 < 55 | Media-Alta |

### Matriz de Transicion

```
           TREND_UP    RANGE    TREND_DOWN
TREND_UP    [0.80       0.15       0.05    ]
RANGE       [0.25       0.50       0.25    ]
TREND_DOWN  [0.05       0.15       0.80    ]
```

La matriz de transicion se estima dinamicamente via EM.

---

## Pipeline de Entrenamiento

### Fase 1: Entrenamiento HMM

```python
# Entrenar HMM en features de momentum
hmm_model = GaussianHMM(n_components=3, covariance_type='full')
hmm_model.fit(momentum_features)

# Obtener estados y probabilidades
hidden_states = hmm_model.predict(momentum_features)
state_probs = hmm_model.predict_proba(momentum_features)
transition_matrix = hmm_model.transmat_
```

### Fase 2: Entrenamiento LSTM

```python
# Entrenar LSTM en secuencias de momentum
lstm_encoder = MRDLSTMEncoder(
    input_dim=n_features,
    hidden_dim=128,
    n_layers=2,
    output_dim=64
)

# Loss: Combinacion de regime prediction + reconstruction
loss = regime_cross_entropy + 0.3 * reconstruction_mse
```

### Fase 3: Entrenamiento XGBoost

```python
# Combinar features para XGBoost
combined_features = np.concatenate([
    one_hot_regime,      # Estado HMM actual
    state_probs,         # Probabilidades de estado
    lstm_features,       # Features LSTM
    momentum_features,   # Features originales
    transition_probs     # Probabilidades de transicion
], axis=1)

# Entrenar clasificador de direccion
xgb_direction = XGBClassifier(**xgb_params)
xgb_direction.fit(combined_features, direction_labels)
```

---

## Metricas de Evaluacion

### Metricas de Regimen

| Metrica | Descripcion | Target |
|---------|-------------|--------|
| **Regime Accuracy** | Precision en deteccion de estado | >= 70% |
| **Transition Accuracy** | Precision en cambios de regimen | >= 60% |
| **Regime Duration Error** | MAE en duracion esperada | < 5 candles |

### Metricas de Direccion

| Metrica | Descripcion | Target |
|---------|-------------|--------|
| **Direction Accuracy** | Precision en direccion | >= 55% |
| **Regime-Conditional Accuracy** | Accuracy por regimen | Trend >= 60%, Range >= 50% |
| **Transition Signal Quality** | Performance en cambios | > 0 return |

### Evaluacion de HMM

```python
MRDMetrics:
    log_likelihood: float     # Log-likelihood del modelo
    aic: float               # Akaike Information Criterion
    bic: float               # Bayesian Information Criterion
    regime_accuracy: float
    transition_f1: float
    avg_regime_duration: Dict[str, float]
```

---

## API y Uso

### Clase Principal: MRDModel

```python
from models.strategies.mrd import MRDModel, MRDConfig

# Configuracion
config = MRDConfig(
    n_regimes=3,
    lstm_hidden_dim=128,
    lstm_layers=2,
    sequence_length=50,
    xgb_n_estimators=200
)

# Inicializar modelo
model = MRDModel(config)

# Entrenar
model.fit(df_train, df_val)

# Prediccion
predictions = model.predict(df_new)
for pred in predictions:
    print(f"Regime: {pred.current_regime}")
    print(f"Direction: {pred.direction}")
    print(f"Next Regime Probs: {pred.next_regime_probs}")
```

### Clase MRDPrediction

```python
@dataclass
class MRDPrediction:
    current_regime: str         # 'TREND_UP', 'RANGE', 'TREND_DOWN'
    regime_confidence: float    # 0 to 1
    direction: float           # -1 to 1
    direction_confidence: float
    next_regime_probs: Dict[str, float]  # Probabilidades del proximo estado
    expected_regime_duration: int  # Candles esperados en este regimen
    momentum_strength: float    # Fuerza del momentum actual

    @property
    def trading_bias(self) -> str:
        if self.current_regime == 'TREND_UP' and self.direction > 0:
            return 'STRONG_LONG'
        elif self.current_regime == 'TREND_DOWN' and self.direction < 0:
            return 'STRONG_SHORT'
        elif self.current_regime == 'RANGE':
            return 'NEUTRAL'
        else:
            return 'WEAK_' + ('LONG' if self.direction > 0 else 'SHORT')
```

### Deteccion de Cambio de Regimen

```python
# Obtener probabilidad de cambio de regimen
def detect_regime_change(predictions: List[MRDPrediction]) -> bool:
    if len(predictions) < 2:
        return False

    current = predictions[-1]
    previous = predictions[-2]

    # Cambio de regimen si:
    # 1. Estado actual diferente
    # 2. Probabilidad del nuevo estado > 70%
    if current.current_regime != previous.current_regime:
        if current.regime_confidence > 0.7:
            return True

    return False
```

---

## Estructura de Archivos

```
apps/ml-engine/src/models/strategies/mrd/
├── __init__.py
├── model.py              # MRDModel, MRDConfig, MRDPrediction
├── feature_engineering.py # MRDFeatureEngineer
├── hmm_regime.py         # HMM regime detector (GaussianHMM wrapper)
├── lstm_encoder.py       # BiLSTM encoder
└── trainer.py            # MRDTrainer
```

---

## Consideraciones de Produccion

### Actualizacion Online del HMM

```python
# El HMM puede actualizarse incrementalmente
def update_hmm(model, new_data, window_size=1000):
    """Actualiza HMM con datos recientes manteniendo estabilidad"""
    if len(new_data) > window_size:
        recent_data = new_data[-window_size:]
    else:
        recent_data = new_data

    # Re-fit con warm start
    model.hmm.fit(recent_data)
```

### Deteccion de Regimen en Tiempo Real

```python
# Pipeline de inferencia optimizado
class MRDInference:
    def __init__(self, model_path: str):
        self.model = MRDModel.load(model_path)
        self.feature_buffer = deque(maxlen=100)

    def update(self, candle: Dict) -> MRDPrediction:
        self.feature_buffer.append(candle)
        if len(self.feature_buffer) >= 50:
            features = self.compute_features()
            return self.model.predict_single(features)
        return None
```

### Alertas de Cambio de Regimen

```python
# Sistema de alertas
def check_regime_alerts(prediction: MRDPrediction) -> List[Alert]:
    alerts = []

    # Alerta de cambio de regimen inminente
    if prediction.regime_confidence < 0.5:
        alerts.append(Alert(
            type='REGIME_UNCERTAINTY',
            message='Regimen actual inestable',
            severity='WARNING'
        ))

    # Alerta de transicion probable
    for regime, prob in prediction.next_regime_probs.items():
        if regime != prediction.current_regime and prob > 0.4:
            alerts.append(Alert(
                type='REGIME_TRANSITION',
                message=f'Posible transicion a {regime}',
                severity='INFO'
            ))

    return alerts
```

---

## Referencias

- [ET-ML-001: Arquitectura ML Engine](./ET-ML-001-arquitectura.md)
- [ET-ML-010: PVA Strategy](./ET-ML-010-pva-strategy.md)
- [Hidden Markov Models (Rabiner, 1989)](https://web.ece.ucsb.edu/Faculty/Rabiner/ece259/Reprints/tutorial%20on%20hmm%20and%20applications.pdf)
- [hmmlearn Documentation](https://hmmlearn.readthedocs.io/)

---

**Autor:** ML-Specialist (NEXUS v4.0)
**Fecha:** 2026-01-25